# Forecasting number of customers



## ObsidianSage (Jan 30, 2012)

Hi

Elsewhere in these forums I posted that I'm planning to open a coffee shop. One of this issues I'm really struggling to get my head around is how many customers I'd get through the door on average each day. Assume a location in a busy village, fairly well off population, two schools and say around 20 shops/businesses on the main street. What do you think? 100, 200 etc... Any tips on conducting some kind of research?

Dan

Sent from my Galaxy S smartphone.


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## fatboyslim (Sep 29, 2011)

Maybe invite people and local businesses to a launch event?

Keeping track of numbers as you go.

This might give some indication of your customer base.


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## humperdingle (Jan 26, 2012)

What's the population of the village?

Does the village have a lot of 'through', traffic, commuters passing through, etc?

Is it a popular tourist village?

Are there many 2nd houses of townies?


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## Glenn (Jun 14, 2008)

The local business association may have figures compiled by established shopkeepers.

Try the local library or planning office for footfall statistics too.

Footfall alone will not translate into profit though

What other competition will you have, and what is the disposable income of your client base?

Do you know the demographics of the area?

Here's a *link to a blog post* I write in 2009 about footfall which then touches on demographics


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## ObsidianSage (Jan 30, 2012)

humperdingle said:


> What's the population of the village?
> 
> Does the village have a lot of 'through', traffic, commuters passing through, etc?
> 
> ...


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## ObsidianSage (Jan 30, 2012)

Thanks Glenn. Nice article, and plenty of food for thought.

Dan

Sent from my Galaxy S smartphone.


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## MikeHag (Mar 13, 2011)

The most reliable numbers you'll obtain will be from going in other local places and counting heads over a period of time. Footfall counting devices and percentages of total highstreet traffic are going to waste your time. I spent a long time trying to forecast that way and the figures are either unibtainable or unreliable.


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## ObsidianSage (Jan 30, 2012)

MikeHag said:


> The most reliable numbers you'll obtain will be from going in other local places and counting heads over a period of time.


When counting do I just look at other coffee shops/cafes or other types of shop as well? Sorry if this sounds like a stupid question!

Dan

Sent from my Galaxy S smartphone.


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## MikeHag (Mar 13, 2011)

There are no stupid questions (... only stupid people - just kiddin!) Count in other cafes. If there are none, why not?

Obviously it's not ideal as your own place could pull in more or fewer customers, but it will give you a view of whether you will have 30 people for lunch hour or 3.

See here http://coffeeforums.co.uk/showthread.php?t=4950


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## casablancacoffee (Mar 15, 2012)

Just opened my coffee shop a few weeks ago. I thought i would get between 50-70 customers a day and that was me being pessimistic. Sadlysome days go by with no customers at all. Average i might 3 customers per day.


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## MikeHag (Mar 13, 2011)

Sorry to hear that. It's early days though. Have you tried to diagnose the problem? This may be a good time to make a few tweaks.


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## casablancacoffee (Mar 15, 2012)

I put it down to a lack of advertising which is something I am trying to address right now.


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## ObsidianSage (Jan 30, 2012)

That must be very stressful for you especially if you are trying to make a living. What sort of research into footfall numbers did you do. What is your location like - main street/side street etc.

Dan

Sent from my Galaxy S smartphone.


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## MikeHag (Mar 13, 2011)

So where are they all going instead? Whatever you do it needs to be targeted to get those customers, giving them a compelling reason to come to you instead of their usual place. Advertising is wasted if it isn't targeted.


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## casablancacoffee (Mar 15, 2012)

I didn't do any kind of research. The business is located in a one way side street which connects to the second busiest traffic throughfare in the town. It is also a basement location.


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## bdt (Sep 13, 2011)

What kind of footfall do you get walking right past the door?

I'm in planning stages of hopefully opening a coffee house later this year and have been bouncing marketing ideas around my head.

One idea I've had (which I wouldn't mind feedback on from some of the more experienced guys on here) is simply to get out there on the street and give away some free coffee to passers by. Let them taste what you're offering at no cost then, once they know you're there (and love the coffee or course), they're far more likely to come back again and pay.

Giving away coffee maybe sounds like it totally contradicts getting customers to come in and part with their cash but fortunately, because of the high profit margins with coffee, you'd only need a fraction of these "try for free" customers to come back and pay for a single full price coffee to cover your costs.

If you're so quiet it's surely worth a try but would appreciate the opinions of others as to whether this is a viable idea or not


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